In the first three quarters of this year, the new energy automotive industry chain sector in A-shares performed outstandingly, with a number of individual stocks rising significantly. Can the new energy vehicle sector continue to be strong in the future? Which sub-sectors perform better in the long, medium and short term? How should ordinary investors deploy?

A reporter from China Fund News interviewed Nie Shilin and Yuan Wei, fund managers of Essence, Wang Jianqiang, deputy director of equity of Pioneer Fund, Liu Junyan, manager of Ping An UOB Fund, and Cao Chunlin, deputy director of Chuangjin Hexin’s research department. In the first three quarters, the new energy automobile industry chain sector in A shares performed outstandingly. A batch of individual stocks rose sharply. Can the new energy vehicle sector continue to be strong in the future? Which sub-sectors perform better in the short, medium and long term? How should ordinary investors lay out

To this end, a reporter from China Fund News interviewed Essence Fund Manager Nie Shilin and Yuan Wei, Vanguard Fund Equity Deputy Director Wang Jianqiang, Ping An UOB Fund Manager Liu Junyan, and Chuangjin Hexin Research Department Deputy Director Cao Chunlin. On the whole, most interviewees believe that the industrial prosperity of the new energy automobile industry chain is up, and the secondary market will fluctuate upward in the long-term, and they are more optimistic about the industry chain market.

Continue to be optimistic about the field of new energy vehicles

China Fund News reporter: The new energy automobile industry chain has performed well recently. How do you see the prospects of this sector?

Nie Shilin: New energy vehicles are a long-term optimistic direction. China has a strong competitive advantage in the new energy vehicle industry. For companies related to the industry chain, we will always follow closely.

Yuan Wei: New energy vehicles are our long-term focus and continue to be optimistic. It is also an area where there are really many opportunities. There are only 1.5 million new energy vehicles in the world this year. In the future, there may be a market of tens of millions of vehicles, and the future market will definitely be rigid.

Wang Jianqiang: The market for new energy vehicles will continue. First of all, in the long run, it is a general trend for new energy vehicles to replace fuel vehicles. Many countries have formulated a timetable for the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, and mainstream auto companies around the world are also deploying new energy vehicles. The development of new energy vehicles is also a strategic opportunity for our country to realize overtaking in curves in the automobile industry. Secondly, in the medium term, the government's industrial policies will significantly promote the development of new energy vehicles, and new energy vehicles will become increasingly attractive to consumers. Finally, from the perspective of short-term data, the new energy vehicle production and sales data announced by the China Automobile Association also continued to maintain high growth. Therefore, regardless of the long-term prospects or the short-term data, the new energy automobile industry chain's prosperity continues to rise, and the sector is still optimistic about the follow-up performance.

Liu Junyan: The industry believes that the intelligent and electrification of automobiles is a big trend. In fact, global automobile giants have increased the research and development and promotion of new energy vehicles, and emerging Internet companies are also investing heavily in this field. With the promotion of the government and the joint efforts of capital, the current global automotive industry is accelerating the transition to smart and electrified. Therefore, in the medium and long term, the new energy automotive industry chain is optimistic.

Cao Chunlin: New energy vehicles are the biggest revolution in the future automotive industry. The future automotive application scenarios will be electrification and driverless. Electric vehicles have the incomparable advantages of environmental protection, high energy conversion efficiency, simple structure, and fast response. With the advancement of battery technology and the sharp drop in cost, the replacement of fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles is accelerating, and there is huge room for future development. From an investment perspective, the high growth opportunities of the new energy vehicle industry chain sector will continue for many years.

Each has its own layout priorities in the long, medium and short term

China Fund News reporter: The new energy vehicle industry chain involves many upstream and downstream industries. Which areas are you optimistic about in the short, medium and long term?

Wang Jianqiang: The new energy automobile industry chain is long and complicated. The upstream and downstream sub-industries include raw materials, cathode materials, anode materials, separators, electrolytes, battery management systems (BMS), lithium battery equipment, batteries and PACKs, electric motor control, and charging Pile and vehicle manufacturing, etc.

In the short term, we are optimistic about the upstream raw materials. The sales of new energy vehicles will continue to grow rapidly, and the demand for raw materials will be strong. However, the supply of upstream lithium, cobalt and other resource products will grow slowly in the short term. The industry concentration is high, the competitive landscape is good, prices remain high, and corporate profitability will continue to be high. .

In the medium term, due to structural overcapacity in the midstream battery manufacturing sector, competition is fierce, and product prices have fallen more. In the future, with the slowdown of new capacity and the optimization of the competitive landscape, the profitability of the industry is expected to usher in an improvement, which is worthy of attention. In addition, with the increase in sales of new energy vehicles, spare parts companies are also worthy of attention, especially other accessories that are not available in fuel vehicles, such as high-voltage DC relays, thermal management, film capacitors, automotive FPCs, automotive PCBs, automotive inductors And so on, automotive electronic parts companies are particularly worthy of attention.

In the long run, as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increases, the downstream sector will usher in numerous investment opportunities, including vehicle manufacturing and charging industries. In the charging industry, the government is currently introducing policies to unify charging technology standards and simplify the approval process. Subsidies, land use, financing, etc. will be successively introduced in supporting policies. The profit model of the industry will gradually become clear, and the development of the charging industry is expected to accelerate .

Liu Junyan: In the medium term, I am optimistic about the upstream lithium mining, lithium battery and other fields, while waiting for the birth of great new energy vehicle companies in the long term.

Cao Chunlin: It is the battery that promotes the transformation of new energy vehicles. The battery is not only the part with greater value, but also the part with the largest room for technological progress. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream lithium and cobalt supply and demand structure is relatively good, and what needs attention is the breakthrough of the salt lake lithium extraction technology; it is expected that the ternary cathode material may be the fastest growing sub-industry in the next few years; and the competitive situation in the battery link It is a winner-takes-all, leading company that is more optimistic about the battery cell segment; in terms of vehicle manufacturing, there is a greater probability that giant companies will emerge in the process of brand restructuring in the future.

Focus on technological progress and cost decline

China Fund News reporter: What are the most important factors affecting the market of the new energy vehicle industry chain? What impact will it have?

Yuan Wei: Technology is very important. For example, now that new energy vehicles are speculating on resources, why do we judge that lithium is good? Very simple. Battery energy storage is related to demand. The only thing that can surpass is hydrogen, but hydrogen needs to be extremely high in order to become a metal. It can only be achieved under pressure and extremely low temperature, and it is impossible to commercialize it. After eliminating hydrogen, only lithium is left, so lithium is irreplaceable.

Wang Jianqiang: As far as the secondary market is concerned, there are many influencing factors, including industry development trends, valuation levels, overall market trends, and market style preferences. However, from the perspective of prolonged cycles, even though market conditions will be due to policy expectations and overall market trends , Market sentiment, etc., produce short-term fluctuations, but it is the industry development trend that ultimately determines the continuity and height of the market. For now, whether it is from the perspective of technological development, industrial policy, or high-frequency production and sales data performance, The industry trends are all booming, which is reflected in the trend of the secondary market, and will fluctuate upwards in the long run.

Liu Junyan: Automobiles are large consumer goods, and consumer recognition is very important. Whether it is a new brand or a traditional automobile giant, only by creating brands and products with truly outstanding consumer experience can the industry change.

Cao Chunlin: New energy vehicles are currently being promoted by relevant policies, but the policies will gradually withdraw. The main driving force for new energy vehicles in the future should also be technological progress and cost reduction. Technological progress and cost reduction will promote the rapid growth of demand, which is also the foundation for the industry chain to maintain competitive advantage and maximize value.

Ordinary investors should borrow the fund layout

China Fund News reporter: For ordinary investors, what should be paid attention to when deploying funds related to the new energy automobile industry chain?

Wang Jianqiang: For ordinary investors, investing in funds related to the new energy industry chain is a good way to share industry development dividends.

On the one hand, the new energy vehicle industry chain is long and complex, and it is necessary to closely follow the development of industrial technology, industrial policies, industrial data, and the operating conditions of companies related to the industrial chain. For example, the newly implemented new energy vehicle subsidy policy this year has raised the threshold for the recommended model catalog, with more refined standards and a larger subsidy decline, resulting in lower-than-expected sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter. At the same time, OEMs put cost pressure on the entire As the industry chain conducts, core components such as batteries, motors, and electronic controls are facing greater pressure to reduce prices. These require investors to conduct research and pre-judgment of industrial policies and their effects in advance, and closely track sales data and the operating conditions of companies in the industry chain, so as to avoid stock price drawdowns during the period.

On the other hand, there are a large number of companies in the new energy automobile industry chain, but not all companies can enjoy the dividends of industry growth. In the end, only a few companies can grow into industry leaders. To identify these outstanding companies requires in-depth professional research and hard work. Research.

Ordinary investors lack sufficient professional capabilities, platform resources, and time and energy to conduct industry and company research, while the deployment of new energy industry chain-related funds can rely on the professional capabilities of fund managers to more accurately grasp investment opportunities in the industry chain and share new ideas. The dividends from the development of the energy automobile industry and the company realize the appreciation of assets.

It should be noted that the investment of related funds should focus on the long-term, because the new energy automobile industry, as an emerging industry, will not develop smoothly. There will be twists and turns, and there will be fluctuations in the net value of fund products. Investors need to strengthen their confidence. , Hold it patiently, and finally enjoy a better return on investment.

(Original title: Fund Manager: The new energy automobile industry is booming, focusing on technological progress and the downward trend of costs)

(Editor in charge: DF353)